Following record numbers of Pomarine
Skuas off Seaford and Birling on 5 May 2014 I have collected information from
observers involved to document the passage and try and draw conclusions.
At Seaford, where coverage was from
05:00 to 20:00, a total of 133 were noted.
These are listed in Table 1. Passage
was slow to start (only two definites by 09:00) but picked up and continued
throughout the day with few gaps of more than 30 minutes and none of more than
50 between sightings. Despite a site (county?) record
day total the largest flock was of just 11 birds.
A final thought is that at least 150 different Pomarine Skuas were recorded along the Sussex coast on 5 May 2014. 133 at Seaford, at least 15 different ones at Birling and at least 3 at Selsey (details below).
Table
1. Pomarine Skua times off Splash Point,
Seaford on 5 May 2014
time
|
number
|
morph
|
comment
|
06:10
|
[1]
|
pale
|
some uncertainty about a
tail-less bird
|
07:53
|
1
|
pale
|
|
08:52
|
1
|
pale
|
|
09:14
|
1
|
pale
|
|
09:23
|
1
|
pale
|
possibly the same as 09:14?
|
09:29
|
9
|
all
pale
|
I might not have seen the last
one [-1]
|
09:40
|
10
|
all
pale
|
|
09:59
|
10
|
9pale1?
|
|
10:10
|
5
|
4pale1dark
|
|
10:16
|
2
|
all
pale
|
|
10:37
|
7
|
all
pale
|
|
11:15
|
2
|
1pale1dark
|
|
11:29
|
1
|
pale
|
|
11:40
|
1
|
pale
|
|
12:10
|
4
|
all
pale
|
|
12:16
|
2
|
both
pale
|
one noted by me [-1]
|
12:30
|
1
|
pale
|
|
12:50
|
1
|
pale
|
|
12:59
|
3
|
2pale1dark
|
|
13:26
|
2
|
both
pale?
|
following 5 Arctics, I missed
them [-2]
|
13:35
|
11
|
10pale1dark
|
|
13:53
|
10
|
pale
|
|
14:00
|
1
|
pale
|
|
14:10
|
3
|
pale
|
|
14:42
|
4
|
all
pale?
|
|
14:52
|
1
|
pale
|
|
15:16
|
4
|
all
pale
|
|
15:34
|
5
|
all
pale
|
|
15:43
|
3
|
all
pale
|
|
16:10
|
1
|
dark?
|
|
16:45
|
3
|
all
pale
|
|
17:04
|
2
|
both
pale
|
|
17:53
|
1
|
pale
|
|
18:05
|
1
|
pale
|
not noted by me [-1]
|
18:15?
|
4
|
2pale2dark
|
} conflicting times noted and
whether
|
18:33?
|
5
|
4pale1dark
|
} both groups landed on the sea
|
18:50
|
5
|
all
pale
|
one joined four on sea, flew
past at 19:20
|
19:23
|
3
|
all
pale
|
|
19:25
|
1
|
pale
|
|
19:29
|
1
|
pale
|
|
total
|
133
|
|
me [-5] making my total 128
|
Thanks to Ewan Urquhart and Simon
Linington for filling in some gaps and comments on the above. Our notes were very similar, other than a very
few minor timing issues and a bit of confusion towards the end (we were all
pretty fatigued by then).
Table
2. Comparison with Pomarine Skua flocks
off Seaford and Birling
time
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
time
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
07:53
|
1
|
|
12:50
|
1
|
|
08:52
|
1
|
1
|
12:59
|
3
|
|
09:14
|
1
|
|
13:12
|
|
14
|
09:23
|
1
|
|
13:26
|
2
|
|
09:29
|
9
|
|
13:35
|
11
|
|
09:40
|
10
|
|
13:44
|
|
12
|
09:52
|
|
13
|
13:53
|
10
|
|
09:59
|
10
|
|
14:00
|
1
|
|
10:10
|
5
|
|
14:04
|
|
7
|
10:15
|
|
12
|
14:10
|
3
|
|
10:16
|
2
|
|
14:26
|
|
5
|
10:22
|
|
4
|
14:42
|
4
|
|
10:26
|
|
1
|
14:50
|
|
1
|
10:37
|
7
|
|
14:52
|
1
|
|
10:38
|
|
3
|
14:55
|
|
6
|
10:48
|
|
1
|
15:05
|
|
1
|
10:58
|
|
9
|
15:16
|
4
|
|
10:59
|
|
3
|
15:25
|
|
6
|
11:15
|
2
|
|
15:34
|
5
|
|
11:29
|
1
|
|
15:40
|
|
9
|
11:40
|
1
|
|
15:43
|
3
|
|
12:10
|
4
|
|
15:51
|
|
2
|
12:16
|
2
|
|
16:07
|
|
1
|
12:17
|
|
8
|
16:10
|
1
|
|
12:29
|
|
1
|
16:35
|
|
1
|
12:30
|
1
|
|
16:45
|
3
|
|
12:44
|
|
2
|
16:55
|
|
2
|
by
12:45
|
58
|
58
|
by
17:00
|
110
|
125
|
Data from Birling was kindly provided
by John & David Cooper. On the face
of it this table shows no direct correspondence between observations at Seaford
and Birling. None of the flocks can be
tracked from Seaford to Birling and only one single could be assumed to have
flown directly and then only if the Seaford bird at 14:52 was that at Birling
13 minutes later. At first I found this
very surprising as the sites are only 6.5 km (~10 minutes) away as the Pom flies. However David Cooper suggested that the Poms
might be using Kittiwakes returning to the colony at Seaford Head as a refueling
stop based on their observations of Poms mugging Kittiwakes, a behaviour we
witnessed several times too. This might
explain the delays in birds reaching Birling from Seaford but is perhaps not the only explanation for the apparent
constantly changing composition of flocks, at least not if there was any continuity in their travelling companions.
A suggestion that Pom’s might migrate already paired isn’t really born
out with a lot of infidelity apparent if they do. Such a phenomenon (paired migration) is much more evident with migrating
Mediterranean Gulls. For Poms, at least evidenced by these sightings, it seems to be a very fluid affair with birds leaving and joining groups.
Table
3. Pomarine Skua totals by 15 minute
periods, Selesy, Seaford and Birling
|
Selsey
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
|
Selsey
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
06:15-06:29
|
1
|
|
|
13:00-13:14
|
4
|
|
14
|
06:30-06:44
|
|
|
|
13:15-13:29
|
|
2
|
|
06:45-06:59
|
|
|
|
13:30-13:44
|
3
|
11
|
12
|
07:00-07:14
|
|
|
|
13:45-13:59
|
|
10
|
|
07:15-07:29
|
|
|
|
14:00-14:14
|
|
4
|
7
|
07:30-07:44
|
|
|
|
14:15-14:29
|
|
|
5
|
07:45-07:59
|
1
|
1
|
|
14:30-14:44
|
2
|
4
|
|
08:00-08:14
|
|
|
|
14:45-14:59
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
08:15-08:29
|
10
|
|
|
15:00-15:14
|
|
|
1
|
08:30-08:44
|
4
|
|
|
15:15-15:29
|
|
4
|
6
|
08:45-08:59
|
|
1
|
1
|
15:30-15:44
|
|
8
|
9
|
09:00-09:14
|
4
|
1
|
|
15:45-15:59
|
|
|
2
|
09:15-09:29
|
|
10
|
|
16:00-16:14
|
|
1
|
1
|
09:30-09:44
|
1
|
10
|
|
16:15-16:29
|
4
|
|
|
09:45-09:59
|
|
10
|
13
|
16:30-16:44
|
|
|
1
|
10:00-10:14
|
|
5
|
|
16:45-16:59
|
|
3
|
2
|
10:15-10:29
|
1
|
2
|
17
|
17:00-17:14
|
|
2
|
|
10:30-10:44
|
|
7
|
3
|
17:15-17:29
|
1
|
|
|
10:45-10:59
|
|
|
13
|
17:30-17:44
|
1
|
|
|
11:00-11:14
|
1
|
|
|
17:45-17:59
|
7
|
1
|
|
11:15-11:29
|
|
3
|
|
18:00-18:14
|
|
1
|
|
11:30-11:44
|
1
|
1
|
|
18:15-18:29
|
|
|
|
11:45-11:59
|
15
|
|
|
18:30-18:44
|
|
4
|
|
12:00-12:14
|
|
4
|
|
18:45-18:59
|
|
6
|
|
12:15-12:29
|
|
2
|
9
|
19:00-19:14
|
3
|
|
|
12:30-12:44
|
9
|
1
|
2
|
19:15-19:29
|
|
9
|
|
12:45-12:59
|
|
4
|
|
Total
|
74
|
133
|
125
|
Justin Atkinson listed the Poms seen
at Selsey and sightings from Selsey, Seaford and Birling are listed in 15
minute periods in the above table. Few
clear patterns emerge although the 10 at Selsey (at 08:29, 9 pale and 1 intermediate)
could have been the 10 at Seaford at 09:49 (9 pale, 1 uncertain), 1 hour 20m
being a pretty good time to cover the c70 kms they would have to fly if
tracking within sight of the coast (53 km/hr or 33 mph) with no Kittiwakes to
distract them. Few other links jump out
of the above table as worthy of investigation although selecting 15 minute
periods is entirely arbitrary and could hide some.
The tables also support the view that
birds are crossing the channel all the time with sites to the east picking up
birds that did not pass further west for although Seaford cumulated a higher overall total, Birling was 15 ahead
when observations there were curtailed.
The last 3 recorded at Selsey could not have reached Seaford before watching stopped there at 20:00 so a county day total of at least 133 at Seaford + 15 extra at Birling + 3 extra at Selsey = 151 would be an absolute minimum.
David Cooper suggested looking at cumulative
totals and speculated that the difference on observations could be explained by
the 9 birds seen arriving from the south at Birling at 10:58 and 6 at 15:25. Ignoring these cumulative totals for Seaford
and Birling are shown in Table 4.
Table
4. Cumulative totals of Pomarine Skuas considered
to have been recorded at both Seaford and Birling
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
|
Seaford
|
Birling
|
pre 08:45
|
1
|
0
|
12:45-12:59
|
62
|
49
|
08:45-08:59
|
2
|
1
|
13:00-13:14
|
62
|
63
|
09:00-09:14
|
3
|
1
|
13:15-13:29
|
64
|
63
|
09:15-09:29
|
13
|
1
|
13:30-13:44
|
75
|
75
|
09:30-09:44
|
23
|
1
|
13:45-13:59
|
85
|
75
|
09:45-09:59
|
33
|
14
|
14:00-14:14
|
89
|
82
|
10:00-10:14
|
38
|
14
|
14:15-14:29
|
89
|
87
|
10:15-10:29
|
40
|
31
|
14:30-14:44
|
93
|
87
|
10:30-10:44
|
47
|
34
|
14:45-14:59
|
94
|
94
|
10:45-10:59
|
47
|
38
|
15:00-15:14
|
94
|
95
|
11:00-11:14
|
47
|
38
|
15:15-15:29
|
98
|
95
|
11:15-11:29
|
50
|
38
|
15:30-15:44
|
106
|
104
|
11:30-11:44
|
51
|
38
|
15:45-15:59
|
106
|
106
|
11:45-11:59
|
51
|
38
|
16:00-16:14
|
107
|
107
|
12:00-12:14
|
55
|
38
|
16:15-16:29
|
107
|
107
|
12:15-12:29
|
57
|
47
|
16:30-16:44
|
107
|
108
|
12:30-12:44
|
58
|
49
|
16:45-16:59
|
110
|
110
|
Offsetting the time at each site by
various amounts suggests that birds took longer to complete the 6.5km between
Seaford and Birling in the morning than the afternoon. Looking at the differences between the cumulative totals for each fifteen minute periods is interesting. If birds were moving directly between Seaford and Birling little differences would be expected except those caused by the arbritrary nature of using 15 minute periods.
Squaring differences give greater significance
to a few bigger differences than many smaller ones, and stops big pluses and minuses
cancelling each other out (less of an issue here)
Table
5. Square of cumulative differences
between Seaford and Birling with various offsets
offset
|
none
|
15 mins
|
30 mins
|
45 mins
|
60 mins
|
total
|
3310
|
1800
|
1362
|
1910
|
3318
|
up to 12:45
|
2935
|
1529
|
719
|
599
|
995
|
after 12:45
|
375
|
271
|
643
|
1311
|
2323
|
The numbers themselves are meaningless
but the smaller totals show a better correlation. This suggests that over the course of the day
assuming a 30 minute offset, i.e. a bird passing Seaford in one 15 minute
period would pass Birling two 15 minute periods later (depending on the precise
times this could be a difference of between 16 and 44 minutes, e.g. 10:59 v
11:15 or 10:45 v 11:29). The lowest
total/closest match for the first half of the observations was using a 45
minute offset while a 15 minute offset was closest for the second half. Perhaps as the day wore on the Poms became
less distracted by Kittiwakes?
To me this shows that Pomarine Skua
passage, at least on this occasion, is not as straight forward as I had assumed. It was however a superb day to have devoted to
seawatching (very fortunate for me being sandwiched by my 25th wedding anniversary do and work). I’m sure it will remain long in the memories of those who were
there. Particular thanks go to Ewan
Urquhart, John King, Simon Linington, Matt Eade and Liam Curson who spent longest
at Seaford. Paul & Bridget James, Tony Wilson and Julian Thomas (down from Norfolk) were also notable amongst the more usual regulars.
Thanks too to Ewan, Simon, John & David Cooper and Justin
Atkinson (via Selsey blog) for details of sightings.
I’m sure we are all hoping for repeats in the coming years to see if similar
patterns emerge, and to enjoy perhaps the most eagerly anticipated spectacle of
Sussex seawatching.
|
Pomarine Skuas flying east off Splash Point, Seaford |